FPI December 2025 Economic Update

https://youtu.be/gPE-DqfdslU?si=UWuE12vdmROVkzUM

Blake Smith - December 8, 2025

Hello everyone, Blake Smith at Financial Partners here. Very excited to wrap up the year with this video as we close out 2025 and get closer to the Christmas and holiday season. First and foremost, I just want to thank all of you. You know, we appreciate all of our clients and their families and the lives that we get to touch in a positive way. Without all of you, we we could not do what we do. So, thank you from the bottom of our hearts for another great year of letting us serve you.

We've made a lot of exciting changes in 2025 and none of that would be possible without all of you. So, thank you very much. We wish you a safe and happy holiday season coming up. But before Christmas gets here, I wanted to throw some numbers your way just to let you know how, you know, the state of the US economy. How are things going? So, what are we looking at for 2026? First and foremost, how is GDP? How is the US economy growing?

Well, as of the end of Q2 of this year, GDP is up 3.8%, which is a positive number. So the US economy continues to expand. Another thing that I've talked about a lot, not only on these videos, but with clients, is the passage of the new tax bill back in July. As I've mentioned before, usually it's once every couple decades we get a new tax bill and we actually got two of them in the last, you know, less than 10 years as we sit here today. So that's created a lot of new strategies and opportunities that we'll continue to uh talk to clients about.

You know, another thing that can be seen as a positive for companies specifically the ones not only ones that we invest in but the ones that are private and doing business in a private manner as well is deregulation. You know, the current administration is seeking more and more deregulation in business and that creates the opportunity at least for companies to be a little bit more flexible and blaze their own trail as they would like to in a less regulated environment.

Now, the one that's still a bit of a variable is trade policy. We of course got a lot of volatility this spring with the announcement of global tariffs. Seemingly cooler heads have prevailed there since then. The Trump administration is taking a little bit more of a one-on-one approach with these countries and and negotiating their tariff rates. So, we'll see what 2026 holds. That is one that, you know, we're all, you know, watching very closely and the market is reacting positively or negatively to that tariff news, you know, almost day in and day out.

Now, as far as, you know, the labor market goes, we have seen some cooling. And what we'll continue to monitor is is this cooling kind of naturally post the the COVID hiring spree of the last couple of years or is this more stress fractures in the labor market than maybe we want to see and that's something again that we'll have to continue to monitor. I know that the Federal Reserve is meeting this week to discuss just that and what direction to take interest rates you know based on that information.

As far as the markets themselves, specifically the US market, we are sitting around all-time highs. As I sit here today, we've got a couple more weeks left in the year, we've had three very good back-to-back years. Again, the year's not quite closed out yet. So, we'll we'll see, you know, as December 31st approaches, but all in all, it's been a very positive year. A little bit unheard of to have that good of a run, back-to-back years, like I mentioned. So, we'll see what 2026 holds.

There's a lot of positive news in my opinion building kind of that bull base case for the economy going into 2026. However, as I mentioned, there is some stress fractures that we'll want to monitor as well. Now, as far as, you know, rounding out the year goes, a lot of times you'll hear about what's called the, you know, the Santa Claus rally or the Santa Claus effect. And that's a lot of consumer spending that can be a boost to markets towards the end of the year a lot of times.

At the same time, what we get is some profit taking, folks closing out their positions, doing some tax loss, harvesting, and that can cause a little bit of volatility as we, you know, finish the next couple weeks of December here. So wouldn't be surprised honestly either way if markets continue to soldier upward due to more positive consumer sentiment especially with the holiday nearing. Also wouldn't surprise me to see some volatility if for no other reason than just profit taking and tax loss harvesting reasons.

So with all that being said again you know I'd say there's uh you know quite a bit to be uh excited about heading into 2026. Again we as a company just want to say thank you. Uh we wish all of you a wonderful Christmas and holiday season. We hope all of you stay safe. If you need anything from us as we close out the year, by all means, give our office a call. Bob, Rebecca, Melody, Chance, myself, we'll be here to help you any way that we can. Otherwise, we look forward to seeing all of you in 2026. Have a wonderful holiday. Thank you again.